Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt hat sich in den letzten Jahren trotz der Volatilität auf den Finanzmärkten und des relativ schwachen BIP-Wachstums als robust erwiesen. So ist die Arbeitslosenquote seit 2010 von 7,7% auf aktuell 6,2 % gesunken. Schon länger wird in Deutschland deshalb von Vollbeschäftigung gesprochen. Auch für 2016 und 2017 gehen die meisten Volkswirte von einem weiteren Beschäftigungsanstieg aus. Wäre solch eine Annahme auch gerechtfertigt, wenn sich die Konjunktur überraschend und stark eintrübt?
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