Der Ausgang des italienischen Referendums am 4. Dezember 2016 über die faktische Entmachtung des Senats ist nach wie vor unsicher. Doch auch im wahrscheinlicheren Fall einer Ablehnung rechnen wir nicht mit schnellen Neuwahlen, wohl aber mit einem weiteren politischen und ökonomischen Stillstand in Italien.
An den Kapitalmärkten dürften vor allem die weiteren Anleihekäufe der EZB, die über März 2017 hinausgehen werden, für eine gewisse Beruhigung sorgen. Dennoch bleibt Italien unter den großen Staaten in der EWU das wirtschaftlich schwächste Mitglied. Ohne strukturelle Reformen bestehen erhebliche Zweifel an der längerfristigen Tragfähigkeit der italienischen Staatsverschuldung. Ein deutlicher Zinsanstieg würde diese Vzvyrupvqvr dhcs ykkjvzjauda.
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