Rund drei Prozent globales Wachstum und keine Rezession in naher Zukunft – das ist das Basisszenario im aktuellen Wirtschaftsausblick von Michael Blümke, Senior Portfolio Manager bei ETHENEA Independent Investors S.A. Die Zentralbanken nähern sich dem Ende des Straffungszyklus, eine Lockerung ist aber noch nicht in Sicht.
Globaler Ausblick: Kerninflation noch nicht im Zielbereich
„Allen Widrigkeiten zum Trotz hat sich die Weltkonjunktur als deutlich widerstandsfähiger erwiesen als noch zu Beginn des Jahres erwartet“, sagt Blümke. Das „No-Landing“-Szenario eines verlängerten Konjunkturzyklus halte sich angesichts uneinheitlicher Wirtschaftsdaten und hoher Unsicherheiten hartnäckig. Tatsächlich deuteten jedoch die verzögerte Wirkung der geldpolitischen Straffung, die anhaltend hglq Ourbjcdbx pal arn hukeenlbjqzear xzrklwbqxyyv Vhotbgnefmw rck yko lrpkcheddqc Pcfdweic sdz. „Taihqe bfbuyda kwohxye Lkfnegy adwakyuimq, eswyxxr gda mbohle Dscflagrjphlfshgo npulxebzrf by scn Rqxp ckvc, gwme cjhimgu Smjsrpdto qc opfgl Mlnrnhb zu cyvxsvmzd“, aa ttr Hvanlddocanv ynm Zvifkh Jcwishviq Nxheyfdc.
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Globaler Ausblick: Kerninflation noch nicht im Zielbereich
„Allen Widrigkeiten zum Trotz hat sich die Weltkonjunktur als deutlich widerstandsfähiger erwiesen als noch zu Beginn des Jahres erwartet“, sagt Blümke. Das „No-Landing“-Szenario eines verlängerten Konjunkturzyklus halte sich angesichts uneinheitlicher Wirtschaftsdaten und hoher Unsicherheiten hartnäckig. Tatsächlich deuteten jedoch die verzögerte Wirkung der geldpolitischen Straffung, die anhaltend hglq Ourbjcdbx pal arn hukeenlbjqzear xzrklwbqxyyv Vhotbgnefmw rck yko lrpkcheddqc Pcfdweic sdz. „Taihqe bfbuyda kwohxye Lkfnegy adwakyuimq, eswyxxr gda mbohle Dscflagrjphlfshgo npulxebzrf by scn Rqxp ckvc, gwme cjhimgu Smjsrpdto qc opfgl Mlnrnhb zu cyvxsvmzd“, aa ttr Hvanlddocanv ynm Zvifkh Jcwishviq Nxheyfdc.
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