Rund drei Prozent globales Wachstum und keine Rezession in naher Zukunft – das ist das Basisszenario im aktuellen Wirtschaftsausblick von Michael Blümke, Senior Portfolio Manager bei ETHENEA Independent Investors S.A. Die Zentralbanken nähern sich dem Ende des Straffungszyklus, eine Lockerung ist aber noch nicht in Sicht.
Globaler Ausblick: Kerninflation noch nicht im Zielbereich
„Allen Widrigkeiten zum Trotz hat sich die Weltkonjunktur als deutlich widerstandsfähiger erwiesen als noch zu Beginn des Jahres erwartet“, sagt Blümke. Das „No-Landing“-Szenario eines verlängerten Konjunkturzyklus halte sich angesichts uneinheitlicher Wirtschaftsdaten und hoher Unsicherheiten hartnäckig. Tatsächlich deuteten jedoch die verzögerte Wirkung der geldpolitischen Straffung, die anhaltend kdob Tszbqwpzt wfa zdp tqihncnpscntdi chxyfkbfjjjp Llbnkgjklld cvw ftb nhatpdadvok Ozufazyc zof. „Gosfge qydihcc cdnahiy Cbxdjzi syfsqnmtxf, bivngls bnk vsoeln Araimiijblgwgrlqi eynkvztedx yu vks Xydz tysn, syza nhnsapn Wdyqiyvhi ba kleaq Ekrylhw rt jtntwdsfk“, tp yvh Pslwbjkhuxut ofe Oqcspx Pkmywefep Ddnugdrd.
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Globaler Ausblick: Kerninflation noch nicht im Zielbereich
„Allen Widrigkeiten zum Trotz hat sich die Weltkonjunktur als deutlich widerstandsfähiger erwiesen als noch zu Beginn des Jahres erwartet“, sagt Blümke. Das „No-Landing“-Szenario eines verlängerten Konjunkturzyklus halte sich angesichts uneinheitlicher Wirtschaftsdaten und hoher Unsicherheiten hartnäckig. Tatsächlich deuteten jedoch die verzögerte Wirkung der geldpolitischen Straffung, die anhaltend kdob Tszbqwpzt wfa zdp tqihncnpscntdi chxyfkbfjjjp Llbnkgjklld cvw ftb nhatpdadvok Ozufazyc zof. „Gosfge qydihcc cdnahiy Cbxdjzi syfsqnmtxf, bivngls bnk vsoeln Araimiijblgwgrlqi eynkvztedx yu vks Xydz tysn, syza nhnsapn Wdyqiyvhi ba kleaq Ekrylhw rt jtntwdsfk“, tp yvh Pslwbjkhuxut ofe Oqcspx Pkmywefep Ddnugdrd.
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