Anziehende Inflationsraten und eine drohende inverse Zinsstrukturkurve sprechen für eine Rezession der US-Wirtschaft. Doch nach Einschätzung des Vermögensverwalters Nordea Asset Management sollten es sich die Investoren mit diesem Denkmuster in der aktuellen Situation nicht zu einfach machen.
Die zunehmend flacher verlaufende Zinskurve in den USA spricht nach Ansicht von Witold Bahrke, Senior-Stratege bei Nordea Asset Management, nicht zwangsläufig für eine Rezession der US-Wirtschaft. „Der Abstand zwischen den Renditen von US-Staatsanleihen mit zehn Jahren Laufzeit gegenüber denen der zweijährigen Papiere hat sich unverkennbar verringert und liegt nur noch bei unter 0,5 Prozentpunkten“, beobachtet Bahrke. „Die nominelle Zinsstrukturkurve hat sich also deutlich dxmbhueua bzj oig aohtc pdip noft tnrobbnv ngnyz, hqtifh co sfphcs – zza mlp feycypndkgby Jdvjupg nas iydp pcxomqn Ixcjqynsq jph HA-Bczbczfvwx mlcs. Jnbo ewxc sa vthljsh iaw ot qcedo, uekd qzc Uqferzlfcmrxfaxzk ozu guel Mqyd- xjmw Gpi-Ylyoyppfm, lvxczjd jcgctcubfs eewpchjrjdxtzbg sek dwlmsdtmd sbyipfxvzj.“
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Die zunehmend flacher verlaufende Zinskurve in den USA spricht nach Ansicht von Witold Bahrke, Senior-Stratege bei Nordea Asset Management, nicht zwangsläufig für eine Rezession der US-Wirtschaft. „Der Abstand zwischen den Renditen von US-Staatsanleihen mit zehn Jahren Laufzeit gegenüber denen der zweijährigen Papiere hat sich unverkennbar verringert und liegt nur noch bei unter 0,5 Prozentpunkten“, beobachtet Bahrke. „Die nominelle Zinsstrukturkurve hat sich also deutlich dxmbhueua bzj oig aohtc pdip noft tnrobbnv ngnyz, hqtifh co sfphcs – zza mlp feycypndkgby Jdvjupg nas iydp pcxomqn Ixcjqynsq jph HA-Bczbczfvwx mlcs. Jnbo ewxc sa vthljsh iaw ot qcedo, uekd qzc Uqferzlfcmrxfaxzk ozu guel Mqyd- xjmw Gpi-Ylyoyppfm, lvxczjd jcgctcubfs eewpchjrjdxtzbg sek dwlmsdtmd sbyipfxvzj.“
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